The BBC now reports that radiation dosages of up to 400 millisieverts (0.4 Sv) per hour were recorded at the site. That is 50 times more than yesterday. According to the World Nuclear Association, exposure to over 100 millisieverts a year is a level which can lead to cancer. People near the nuclear plant get this amount of radiations in just 15 minutes. At such level, people would receive a lethal dose of 8 sieverts if continually exposed for 20 hours. In other words, anybody staying on the site today has a death sentence (although it can take months or years to die from radiation exposure).
As I expected this morning, the gravity of the meltdown has been revised to level 6 (Serious Accident) on the INES scale of 7. This makes it only one step away from Chernobyl and more serious than the Three Mile Island accident.
Radioactivity levels in Tokyo are currently 10 times higher than normal. This shouldn't pose a health risk if things do not deteriorate. The winds are now blowing towards the Pacific Ocean. A change of direction towards Tokyo would, however, inevitably increase the risk of radiation in the capital.
It has been predicted that rain clouds could spread radiation around Japan and in other countries in the region. The main concern about this scenario is that contaminated rain water would cause rivers, water tables and agricultural products to become radioactive, possibly for many years. It is lucky that the earthquake didn't take place during the summer monsoon. A typhoon would have spread the radioactivity to dramatic proportions.
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